How will corruption evolve in 2024?


Every year on December 9 the world celebrates International Anticorruption Day. This is the annual moment to review the state of global corruption, as well as the best opportunity to reflect on the poverty of our review tools. It has always been a challenge to measure corruption, but to measure corruption across time is the ultimate challenge. Another year of struggle against corruption is coming to a pass. Are we nearer to the target? Has any country graduated to good governance, in the ‘green’ area of the upper third of the global ranking? Has any country already in that area experienced some backsliding? Are some countries closer to reaping the benefits of many years of reforms or, on the contrary, does the world risk losing more countries to state capture?

As perception indicators are not optimal for assessing change from one year to another, ERCAS devised a methodology to both capture change – and lack of it- and explain it. A snapshot for 2023 can be found as the Index of Public Integrity (IPI), based on scientifically validated indicators, which proxy the causes (enablers and disablers) of corruption. Then, as indicators always have a certain time lag, the trend analysis is completed with an analysis of recent facts. All the data can be found on Except for the countries presented in the front table, all the others are forecast to be stationary. The six indicators used for the IPI 2023 are:


Administrative transparency De facto transparency of public contracts, business register, land cadaster and auditor general reports, as reported step by step and link by link in the T-index.
Online services The extent to which governments offer online services, as featured in the UN Survey. (Replaced Administrative burden based on the World Bank Doing Business)
Budget transparency The extent to which budget proposals and previous-year expenditures are and have been made public, using a fraction of the Open Budget Index survey.
Judicial independence The extent to which the judiciary is autonomous from private interest (including by government officials) as in the Global Competitiveness Report survey by the World Economic Forum
(Digital citizenship)
Household broadband subscriptions and Facebook users per country measure the capacity of civil society
Freedom of the press Yearly indicator including economic and physical pressure on media


As Facebook users’ data, which is a component of the e-citizens, changes coverage across years, we use only Internet household connections to measure e-citizens for the forecast. As administrative transparency is a new indicator, with direct observations of every country’s online transparency, it is also not included in the forecast trends monitoring (just the IPI), but as an additional weight step. The step-by-step methodology can be read here.

Our IPI and forecast methodology thus provide three pictures:

1.   A snapshot- How the world is in the 2022-2023 IPI and why. Users can read the IPI by country and compare it against its region and income group on every component.

2.   A motion picture based on a time series- how countries changed over the past ten years and where they would likely be next year.

3.   A diagnosis – Open the forecast country page to see the individual trends, diagnosis and explicit legend to understand where the country is on corruption risk, what it could do to improve, and where it will be next year.




  • Every year, state capture is subverted by the silent but unstoppable rise of global digital citizenship, which signifies aggregate demand for good governance, understood as fair and equal treatment by a government for its subjects, with no privileged groups or citizens, enjoying a different status due to connections to the government — or bribes. Almost in every country of the world, the number of e-citizens is on the rise.
  • Corruption fights back, even against the most successful judicial crackdowns, with former successful countries losing battles against impunity in Latin America, Africa and the Balkans. Anti-privilege reforms promoting ethical universalism, and not high-profile trials, thus offer the most sustainable path to good governance, as success stories prove.
  • An unprecedented number of insurgencies, coups and wars are taking state capture to the next violent stage and threaten what have been incipient promising trends in  have also been under threat but give signs of resilience and recovery.
  • As Estonia moved up and the United States down, Estonia is now ahead of the United States as number 5 in the IPI ranking (1-10, with 10 best integrity in the IPI), after Denmark, Norway, Finland and New Zealand, which lead the top.
  • Digital trends (Internet and social media connected citizens, online services) are all steadily rising, while political indicators (judicial independence, freedom of the press) are doing badly in most of the world and worsening. The political trends cancel out the positive tech trends, and growing demand in the form of civil society combined with increased repression of the press and civil society is likely to lead to much instability wherever civil society reaches some critical mass – for instance, in the capital cities. The fall of captors in Sri Lanka may be followed by many others, but the success of the revolutionary path to good governance depends on the degree of institutionalization of political alternatives to follow. Not many political coalitions for good governance, unified by a single program on eliminating privilege and increasing transparency, exist around the world. If the good political society does not associate with a clear purposive movement, populists will remain what they have been for a while now – the chief political winners due to discontent with corruption.
  • Unless the United States solves its leadership integrity problems and is back convincingly as the needed global anticorruption coalition leader, global standards will sink even lower in 2024, and global anticorruption will become just another tool of a new cold war, with accusations of political instrumentalization and double standards flourishing. A phase of global moral anarchy with few successful transformations might follow as countries increasingly realign on grounds other than public integrity reputation.


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Direct queries to professors Alina Mungiu-Pippidi and Michael Johnston at


Berlin-Roma-Bucharest, December 2023



Indonesia has made some small progress in the past decade, but still lags behind its income group. Poor regulation creates and sustains corruption across sectors and levels of government, and fighting corruption after it happens, even when carried out in earnest by Indonesia’s competent anticorruption agency,is insufficient to rewrite corrupt rules of the game. Cutting rents at the level of regulation, however, needs a majority in the legislature. Indonesia hasinsufficient e-citizens to reach a critical mass and generate such a majority and can progress only incrementally until then.

New Indonesian Website Exposes Politicians Convicted of Corruption

A group of Indonesian activists and journalists have recently launched the website, created as an ‘encyclopedia’ of corruption cases in Indonesia. The online platform aims at exposing individuals who have been accused and convicted of corruption, and it has managed to reach millions of internet users already in the first weeks after its launch.

According to Ratna Dasahasta, the website’s chief editor, the initiative aims to increase access by citizens to more detailed information on corruption cases. As media coverage of corruption is usually limited to high-profile cases, and few individuals have access to court documents, most people have little information on the judicial outcome of corruption cases. Therefore, Korupedia intends to facilitate access to such data.

Moreover, the naming-and-shaming strategy adopted by the project seeks to increase the negative impact of involvement with corruption over the image of politicans. Ms. Dashasta pointed out that many politicians and public officials convicted of corruption keep on with their careers in the public administration as if nothing happened, and continue to be seen as prominent and prestigious individuals. The project thus attempts to impose a kind of ‘social sanction’ on them.

A list of 120 names and respective photos, together with the accusations based on which each politician and government official has been convicted, is already available on the website, and the number of documented cases is expected to grow rapidly, as the project’s staff currently analizes material on 900 additional cases.

For more information read the article “New Indonesian Website Names and Shames Corrupt Officials” on the Wall Street Journal blog. The picture featured above is the official logo of Korupedia.

Movie Series Raises Awareness against Corruption in Indonesia

A new initiative to raise awaraness against corruption is being implemented in Indonesia. Anti-corruption organizations, film directors and famous actors have produced a series of four movies, entitled “Us against Corruption” (Kita Versus Korupsi), which portrays how corruption takes place in Indonesians’ everyday life and how it can be curbed.

The movies focus on situations such as paying bribes for marriage licenses or corruption in the education system, which reflect an environment where corruption has become an expected behavior in the society. Moreover, the series highlight that corruption can cease to be a common social practice through efforts to raise awareness and educate citizens.

Transparency International’s national chapter in Indonesia, together with the government’s Corruption Erradication Commission (KPK), led production and distribution activities, which included road shows with cast and crew and screenings in several regions of the country.

For more details read “Indonesia launches highly successful film selection: Us against Corruption” on The picture shown above is also featured in the article.

The Republic of Indonesia: Between a Gecko and a Crocodile

Although corruption continues to be a severe problem in Indonesia, indicators show that Indonesia has greatly improved at curbing corruption over the past decade – more so, in fact, than any other country in all of Asia. Clearly, something remarkable is going on in the country. This paper will focus on the evolution of corruption in the Republic of Indonesia, exploring what factors, including policy indicators, have had the greatest impact in curbing corruption in the country.

The Republic of Indonesia: Between a Gecko and a Crocodile

Although corruption continues to be a severe problem in Indonesia, indicators show that Indonesia has greatly improved at curbing corruption over the past decade – more so, in fact, than any other country in all of Asia. Clearly, something remarkable is going on in the country. This paper will focus on the evolution of corruption in the Republic of Indonesia, exploring what factors, including policy indicators, have had the greatest impact in curbing corruption in the country.