How was this forecast made?
- Ten year trends of Index of Public Integrity (e-govt and e-participation instead of e-citizens due to absence of representative Facebook data). For the Index of Public Integrity (IPI), consult integrity-index.org
- Most recent value for IPI e-citizens as proxy for demand for good governance
(+- Global Corruption Barometer questions on approval of government AC policies and if corruption goes up or down)
- Survey of recent contingencies (elections, civil war, impeachments, indictments under Foreign Corrupt Practice Act, etc.)
Full discussion on lagging indicators and methodology here: Beyond the lag. How to predict and understand evolutions towards good governance?