Public Integrity Forecast

How was this forecast made?

 

  1. Ten year trends of Index of Public Integrity (e-govt and e-participation instead of e-citizens due to absence of representative Facebook data). For the Index of Public Integrity (IPI), consult integrity-index.org
  2. Most recent value for IPI e-citizens as proxy for demand for good governance
    (+- Global Corruption Barometer questions on approval of government AC policies and if corruption goes up or down)
  3. Survey of recent contingencies (elections, civil war, impeachments, indictments under Foreign Corrupt Practice Act, etc.)
    Full discussion on lagging indicators and methodology here: Beyond the lag. How to predict and understand evolutions towards good governance?

 


 

Forecast methodology

integrity index methodology