The Public Integrity Forecast

Legend and Methodology

The trend signs before every country (N=124) do not only refer to the past, but also indicate if either stagnation, positive or negative evolution is expected. How was this forecast made:

  1. On the basis of ten years trends of determinants of corruption/the public integrity framework (components of the Index of Public Integrity, IPI), or their related proxies, when not available. The IPI is highly and significantly associated with all known subjective or objective corruption indicators (CPI, CoC, GCB, procurement indicators).
  2. Considering  the IPI evolution since 2015.
  3. Considering both the recent windows of opportunity (such as elections won with an anticorruption mandate) and implementation gaps (distance between formal treaties/conventions signed and their implementation).
  4. Considering the potential critical mass demanding good governance and its digital empowerment at the present moment (e-citizens), as well as other proxies.

    The sources used are mostly components of IPI or related proxies. Global Corruption Barometer of Transparency International was also used for 2 questions: approval of government anticorruption policies and assessment if corruption has grown in the past two years. We are indebted to all the producers of such data for making it public. We also considered the monitoring of implementation of anticorruption acts (such as OECD anti-bribery convention).

    This forecast thus blends numerical and qualitative indicators.

    The legend explains both the trend and the underlying equilibrium behind it.

For more details on the IPI visit the IPI webpage.

For more details on this forecast please consult Working  Paper no 60 under Publications.